A revision of the theory of Alvin Toffler

Abstract

Alvin Toffler depicted a vision of the future where decentralization occurs due to telecommunications technology. However, that is not what has happened. The significance of telecommunications technology is that it only provides the option of movement, and that option is not always chosen. I have discovered that, when people previously left behind have access to this technology, it results in "disparity elimination," regardless of the choices of each person. This shines a new light on remote management and automation of agriculture. When it became possible to "operate things" via telecommunications technology, this actually enabled not decentralization from large cities, but rather disparity elimination in the form described below. Therefore, we must change our previous conception of disparity elimination. This fact will significantly alter the decentralized vision of the future that people have adhered to since the time of Alvin Toffler.

§1

The true significance of telecommunications technology

In his book The Third Wave (1980), Alvin Toffler suggested that people will move to the suburbs and decentralize if they can work remotely from their work site using telecommunications technology, as indicated in Fig. 1(A).
However, although the relevant technology has developed since then, the reality is that the predicted trend has almost completely failed to occur.

A little thought shows that this telecommunications technology only provides the option of moving, as indicated in Fig. 1(B). In other words, even if decentralization becomes possible, people will not always choose it.

【Fig. 1】

Fig. 1-A

Fig. 1-B

Now, let's consider the case where this telecommunications technology is available to people who have previously been left behind in decentralization as in Fig. 2(A). This includes situations like when farmland is managed remotely from a central location. In this case, the option of centralization in core cities is provided to people previously left behind in decentralization, as indicated in Fig. 2(B).

【Fig. 2】

Fig. 2-A

Fig. 2-B

The important point here is that, if people previously left behind are provided the option of centralization, it will result in disparity elimination even if that option is not chosen.

This is because, if people previously left behind are provided the option of moving to core cities, yet still remain in their current situation, that can be regarded as their own volition. Here, that will be seen as a state of disparity elimination.

That is, a state of disparity elimination can always be achieved in this case, regardless of the choices people make, if people are provided the option of centralization.

The above shows that, when it became possible to "operate things" with telecommunications technology, this actually enabled not decentralization from large cities, but rather disparity elimination. This disparity elimination takes the form of providing people previously left behind in decentralization the option of centralizing in core cities, and given this option, some people move and some people do not.

§2

A new way of conceiving disparity elimination

In light of the above, we must change our previous concept of the state of disparity elimination.

Thus far, if one took a look and there was no disparity, that was taken to be a state of disparity elimination. But this is different. If, for example, there appears to be decentralization, but one has gained the option of centralizing, and decentralization is still chosen, then that can be regarded as a state of disparity elimination.
This is a completely new way of conceiving the situation, where one regards the condition of having gained an option as a state of disparity elimination. (Concept of disparity elimination as a state)

【Fig. 3】

Fig. 3-A

Fig. 3-B

For example, in Fig. 3(A), almost everyone is centralized, but there are people who remain decentralized due to their own volition. If this is a result of their individual choices when they are both are provided with the option of centralization, then this can be regarded as a state of disparity elimination. Even if everyone remained completely decentralized, as indicated in Fig. 3(B), that too could be called a state of disparity elimination if the situation is due to their individual choices when provided with the option of centralization.

That is, it is essential to adopt a vantage point that goes beyond appearances, and regards the state of simply having the right to centralize as a state of disparity elimination.

It must also be recognized that this is completely different from what is called "induced" disparity elimination. This does not mean bringing population from other regions. The population currently in a region remains as is, and the change derives from the fact that people currently decentralized and left behind gain the ability to centralize in the central areas (i.e., they gain that option).

§3

Revision of Alvin Toffler's vision of the future

As indicated above, what telecommunications technology actually enables is not decentralization from large cities, but rather disparity elimination. This disparity elimination takes the form of providing those who previously could not move the option of centralizing in core cities, and given this option, some people move and some people do not. Therefore we must change our previous conception of disparity elimination.

This fact which will overturn the decentralized vision of the future that has held sway since the time of Alvin Toffler.

Dedicated to my mother
May 1, 2019
Tokyo, Japan

§4

Transitions in centralization/decentralization
(Note added on August 3, 2019)

Let's consider transitions in the form of centralization/decentralization in light of the above.

1st stage of centralization/decentralization

This is a decentralized society focused on primary industry.

2nd stage of centralization/decentralization

Commercial cities form at key transportation hubs. This form is seen in the initial stage of capitalism, etc.

3rd stage of centralization/decentralization

This is the modern stage. With the growth and centralization of the industrial population, and the development of service industries, metropolises appear. On the other hand, industries that cannot be moved remain decentralized in agricultural areas.

4th stage of centralization/decentralization

Viewed in this way, it is possible to define the new form we have just discussed as the fourth stage of centralization/decentralization.
This is a form where the people previously left behind in decentralization also gain the option of centralizing in core cities, and, as explained above, there is a mixture of those who centralize, and those who remain due to their own volition.
At a glance, there appears to be no major change from the present. However, there is a major difference in that this is a state where disparities have been eliminated.

This is the form of society that becomes possible when we can operate things with telecommunications technology.
It should be evident that this is a major departure from Alvin Toffler's vision of the future.

Abstract

The true significance of telecommunications technology

A new way of conceiving disparity elimination

Revision of Alvin Toffler's vision of the future

Transitions in centralization/decentralization (Note added on August 3, 2019)

Transitions in centralization/decentralization
(Note added on August 3, 2019)